Existing-home sales climbed modestly in September, rising 1.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million , according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Sales were also 4.1% higher than a year earlier as easing mortgage rates and better affordability began to lift demand. Even so, the market remains well below pre-pandemic norms as many owners stay put. “As anticipated, falling mortgage rates are lifting home sales,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Improving housing affordability is also contributing to the increase in sales.” Yun added that inventory levels are near a five-year high but remain below pre-COVID averages. “Many homeowners are financially comfortable, resulting in very few distressed properties and forced sales. Home prices continue to rise in most parts of the country, further contributing to overall household wealth.” Regional Breakdown (Sales and Prices, September 2025) Region Sales (annual rate) MoM Change Median Price YoY Change Northeast 490k +2.1% $500,300 +4.1% Midwest 940k -2.1% $320,800 +4.7% South 1.86m +1.6% $364,500 +1.2% West 770k +5.5% $619,100 +0.4%
Mortgage application activity edged lower last week, driven by purchases, but the decline was marginal compared to recent swings. According to MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 17, total volume slipped 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis and 0.2% unadjusted. The Refinance Index rose 4% from the previous week and was 81% higher than the same week one year ago. The uptick was driven by a 6% increase in conventional refinances and a 12% jump in FHA refinances as borrowers capitalized on the lowest rates in a month. “The lowest mortgage rates in a month spurred an increase in refinance activity, including another pickup in ARM applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The refinance index increased 4 percent, driven by a 6 percent increase in conventional refinances and a 12 percent increase in FHA refinance applications, as borrowers remain attentive to these opportunities to lower their monthly mortgage payment. VA refinances bucked the trend and were down 12 percent.” Purchase applications decreased 5% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis and 5% unadjusted, but remained 20% stronger than a year ago. While activity has cooled from early-fall highs, demand remains resilient amid improving inventory and a more stable rate environment. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 55.9% of total applications from 53.6% the week prior. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share climbed to 10.8%. The FHA share rose to 21.8%, while the VA share declined to 13.5%.
Mortgage application activity declined again last week, though the drop was more moderate than the prior week’s pullback. According to MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 10, total volume fell 1.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis and 2% unadjusted. The Refinance Index slipped 1% from the previous week but remains 59% higher than the same week one year ago. Refi activity has flattened out after September’s surge but continues to hold at elevated levels as some FHA borrowers take advantage of a rate gap of more than 10 basis points below conventional loans. “Mortgage rate movements were mixed last week, with the 30-year fixed rate decreasing slightly to 6.42 percent. Mortgage applications were lower than the week before, as conventional and VA applications saw declines,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “FHA applications saw a stronger week, and FHA refinance applications in particular increased 12 percent as the FHA rate stayed more than 10 basis points lower than the conventional fixed rate. Purchase applications declined for the third consecutive week but remained 20 percent ahead of last year’s pace as improving inventory conditions in certain markets continue to maintain homebuyer interest.” Purchase applications decreased 3% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis and 2% unadjusted, but were still 20% stronger than a year ago. Activity continues to show resilience relative to last year’s depressed levels as buyers respond to slightly better inventory conditions.
Mortgage application activity declined again last week as refi demand continues pulling back after the surge in mid September. According to MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 3, total volume fell 4.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis and 5% unadjusted. The Refinance Index decreased 8% from the previous week but remains 18% higher than the same week one year ago. Refinancing activity pulled back broadly across conventional and VA segments after climbing to multi-year highs in September. This is a logical move considering rates were at long-term lows in mid-September and then rose sharply to the present range on September 17/18. “With mortgage rates on fixed-rate loans little changed last week, refinance application activity generally declined, with the exception of a modest increase for FHA refinance applications,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. “Refinance volume remains somewhat elevated relative to levels of a month ago. Purchase activity declined by about 1 percent for the week but continues to show moderate growth on an annual basis, and stronger growth for FHA loans, favored by first-time homebuyers.” Purchase applications slipped 1% on both a seasonally adjusted and unadjusted basis but were still 14% stronger than a year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 53.3% of total applications. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share increased to 9.5%. The FHA share rose to 18.5%, while the VA share edged up to 16.3%.
The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)—which tracks contract signings on existing homes—ticked higher in August, but remains locked in the same flat, depressed range that has defined the past two years. Pending home sales rose 4.0% in August, lifting the index to its highest level since March, and 3.8% above the same month last year. That all sounds pretty good, but the chart tells a more sobering story. The overall trend hasn’t changed: contract activity continues to bounce around within a narrow band, showing only modest sensitivity to month-to-month rate shifts (which could also simply be coincidental). Regional Breakdown (Month-Over-Month) Northeast: −1.1% Midwest: +8.7% South: +3.1% West: +5.0% Regional YoY Change Northeast: +2.6% Midwest: +6.7% South: +4.2% West: +0.2% Three of the four regions posted solid monthly gains, led by the Midwest and West. On a yearly basis, all four regions were slightly positive, with the Midwest again the strongest performer.
Both the FHFA and the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices published updated home-price data this week. The message hasn’t changed: prices are still higher than a year ago, but the pace of growth continues to slow. Case-Shiller is now at its weakest year-over-year level in more than 2 years, while FHFA remains stuck near the lowest growth since 2012. The eternal caveat with home price data is that the "lowest in x years" classification doesn't mean home prices are falling if the percent change is still positive--something that's still easily the case in annual terms. Another way to visualize this is with the simple price indices themselves (NOT the percent change). Note: the following chart's y axis is normalized such that 100 = 100 for both indices (which simply makes it easier to see correlation). The takeaway from this second chart is quite different. Prices remain near all-time highs and have only ebbed slightly in recent months. None of the moderation in prices over the past few years even belongs in the same conversation as the massive correction seen during the great financial crisis. FHFA House Price Index (seasonally adjusted, MoM) July: −0.2%; June was unrevised at −0.2% YoY: +2.8% from July 2024 to July 2025 All nine census divisions remained positive YoY, with gains ranging from +0.6% in the Mountain division to +6.5% in the Middle Atlantic. Case-Shiller National Index (unadjusted)
Mortgage application activity dropped sharply last week as higher rates cut into both refinance and purchase demand. According to MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending September 26, total volume fell 12.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis and 13% unadjusted. The Refinance Index decreased 21% from the previous week but remains 16% higher than the same week one year ago. The pullback was broad-based, with double-digit declines across conventional and VA refinancing after rates climbed to three-week highs. Apart from the previous 2 weeks, the index was at the highest levels in more than 3 years. "Mortgage rates increased to their highest level in three weeks as Treasury yields pushed higher on recent, stronger-than-expected economic data. After the burst in refinancing activity over the past month, this reversal in mortgage rates led to a sizeable drop in refinance applications, consistent with our view that refinance opportunities this year will be short-lived,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. Purchase applications edged lower, with the seasonally adjusted index down 1% and the unadjusted index down 2%, though both measures remain 16% stronger than a year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 55.0% of total applications. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share fell to 8.4%. The FHA share increased to 16.8%, while the VA share declined to 16.2%. Mortgage Rate Summary:
Existing-home sales held roughly steady in August after tepid uptick in July. That NAR reported a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.0 million , down 0.2% from July but 1.8% higher than a year ago. Sales have now hovered near 75% of pre-pandemic norms for three years, reflecting the same constrained but stable environment that has defined the market since 2022. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said mortgage rates are beginning to ease and inventory is slowly improving, which should help future sales. He added that record-high housing wealth and a strong stock market may support move-up activity, even as the lower end of the market remains tight. Regional Breakdown (Sales and Prices, August 2025) Region Sales (annual rate) MoM Change Median Price YoY Change Northeast 480k -4.0% $534,200 +6.2% Midwest 960k +2.1% $330,500 +4.5% South 1.83m -1.1% $364,100 +0.4% West 730k +1.4% $624,300 +0.6% National Market Stats
New home sales surged in August, breaking a two-year stretch of range-bound activity. The Census Bureau and HUD reported a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 800,000 , up 20.5% from July’s revised 664,000 and 15.4% above August 2024’s 693,000. This is the strongest monthly gain since the pandemic boom and a clear departure from the prior sideways trend. The only caveat is that this data series is notorious for wide margins of error and revisions. For-sale inventory fell to 490,000 , down 1.4% from July and 4.0% higher than a year ago. At the current sales pace, that represents a 7.4-month supply , a sharp drop from July’s 9.0 months and nearly 10% below August 2024. It is normal for inventory to move lower when sales increase, all else equal. Prices moved higher with the sales surge. The median sales price climbed to $413,500 (+4.7% MoM; +1.9% YoY), while the average price jumped to $534,100 (+11.7% MoM; +12.3% YoY). The share of $1 million-plus homes rose to roughly 7% of total sales, double July’s level, helping lift the average. Regional Sales (MoM): Northeast +72.2%, Midwest +12.7%, South +24.7%, West +5.6% Stage of Construction: Not started 96,000; under construction 290,000; completed 414,000 Median months on market (completed): 2.7 On a qualitative note, the huge move in home sales may raise questions about whether the recent rally in interest rates played a role. While there is broad connection between rates and sales at times, it never has an impact that quickly. After all, this sales data is for the month of August, and rates didn't make their big move until September.
Mortgage application activity technically hit another long-term high last week, but that's only because it was riding the coattails of the previous week's stellar momentum. According to MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending September 19, total volume rose 0.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis and 0.1% unadjusted. The Refinance Index increased 1% from the previous week and is running 42% higher than the same week one year ago. The modest improvement was likely driven by the lower rates available early in the survey period. As rates have snapped back to slightly higher levels, it makes good sense to see things level-off. "Interest rates generally have moved up following the FOMC meeting last week but remain in a range that is favorable for many borrowers,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. Purchase applications were similarly steady, with the seasonally adjusted index up 0.3% and the unadjusted index down 1% while remaining 18% stronger than a year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 60.2% of total applications. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share decreased to 8.9%. The FHA share of total applications fell to 15.7%, while the VA share rose to 17.5%. Mortgage Rate Summary: 30yr Fixed: 6.34% (from 6.39%) | Points: 0.57 (from 0.54) 15yr Fixed: 5.70% (from 5.63%) | Points: 0.69 (from 0.58) Jumbo 30yr: 6.44% (from 6.48%) | Points: 0.34 (from 0.35) FHA: 6.14% (from 6.14%) | Points: 0.74 (from 0.68) 5/1 ARM: 5.53% (from 5.65%) | Points: 0.49 (from 0.41)
